We live in a day when rumors and conspiracies mingle with reality to cause confusion, concern, and contention—Covid-19 is not real, human trafficking is on the rise, the 2020 election was stolen, vaccines cause autism, all of the media is covering something up, “they” want to wipe religion from the public square, and on and on. The promoters of such falsehoods invert reality by decrying fact verification and calling accurate information “fake” or a “hoax.” Rumors and lies have been spread throughout history, but current conspiracies about the pandemic and American politics now cause pain, suffering, and death. They also strain interpersonal relationships among family, friends, and neighbors.
Latter-day Saints should not be surprised to encounter errors and falsehoods—Jesus predicted future times marked by false prophets, deception, and iniquity. But despite ample warning, the Saints are often tricked—the state of Utah (with a large but not entire population of Latter-day Saints) has proven itself as the “fraud capital of the United States.” Our current environment of misinformation prompted Church leaders to warn members about unreliable information and conspiracy theories.
Rumors circulate because their promoters benefit from chaos and division—politicians and their parties raise more money in an “us against them” environment, cable news shows gain more attention (and advertising dollars) when inflammatory guests debate “both sides,” and people who feel passed over and left out take solace in the idea that a simple story explains all the troubles.
To quash rumors and conspiracy theories, we need to change how we think and listen and speak. We need to understand how conspiracy theories “work” so that we can detect them when we observe their oversimplifying into “either/or” options and avoiding of actual evidence. We can watch for warning signs and work together to develop habits of good thinking and conversation.
How Conspiracy Theories Work
A conspiracy theory is a belief that some secret but influential organization is behind the events and circumstances that we see. In national and world histories, the alleged conspirators are secret brotherhoods, wealthy elite, unnamed government agencies, or a massive “deep state.” In Church history the alleged conspirators might be the Danites, a big sugar trust, the Correlation Department, or modern “Gadianton robbers.” The conspiracy may involve covering up a single event or it may extend to an entire organization or system. In this view, history is caused by scheming people, the true facts are dark and dirty, and there is always something sinister lurking below the surface.
Conspiracy theories appeal to the hearer’s fear and pride—“you are smart and good but someone evil is hiding things from you to harm you.” They offer the same neurological satisfaction of winning a game and can function like a spiritual worldview.
Conspiracy theories avoid evidence by using a tactic called “anomaly hunting.” An anomaly is something that is different from what is standard, expected, or assumed to be common sense. The objective in hunting for anomalies is not to find truth. Rather the promoter merely tries to point out contradictions or raise questions. Typically, the person presents a tone of openness or curiosity. “I’m not trying to be critical,” he says, “but have you noticed this weird thing? It’s too much to be a coincidence.” Frequently they are presented softly, with encouragement to “think for yourself” and “find the hidden patterns.”
Conspiracy theories are circular in that any evidence presented to counter the conspiracy gets twisted into “part of the plot to make people think they are not covering it up.” They give the illusion of thinking without demonstrating any analysis. They close our minds when we need our minds to be open to inspiration of the Holy Ghost.
Pause, and Think
Rumors and conspiracy theories spread so quickly on the internet because the online environment conditions us to scroll quickly and react with emotion while liking and sharing, without pausing to think. This plays off our natural tendency to trust others, which is helpful in a functioning society. We also bring mental limitations—we are more likely to remember things that have a story or pattern, our minds prefer information that is easier to process, we remember things that align with what we already believe (confirmation bias) and ignore information that runs counter to our existing beliefs (motivated reasoning).
Knowing these limitations, we should cultivate a habit of thinking the second thought. Imagine that we have two systems for thinking: a first that works quickly and reflexively and a second that concentrates and makes choices. To activate the second, we must pause and consciously ask, “Is this real?” (see Alma 32:35). This process is embodied in the old adages to “measure twice, cut once” or to “trust but verify.” Develop the habit of pausing to think the second thought.
More than Either/Or
Rumors and conspiracy theories oversimplify the world. They focus on some things, while omitting the full picture and rarely seeing things in all relevant contexts. The most common way of oversimplifying past and current issues is to reduce them to simple “either/or” pairs of opposites—good or evil, Democrats or Republicans, Black citizens or white police. It is true that all of the things in the previous sentence exist in our society, but they are not the only things – there is so much more!
The general strategy to improve oversimplified thinking involves replacing the “or” with “and.” There are more than two sides to every story, and it is okay to hold two ideas at the same time. One way to move beyond binary thinking is to look for a more temperate middle point between the two apparent extremes (a middle point need not lie exactly in the center of the two extremes). A second way to dissolve a dualism is to accept both, without having to accept a false choice between only two options. Third, sometimes we can add to the opposites to see both and by adding other important concepts, including “I don’t know (and that’s okay)” and “the information is incomplete” and “there is conflicting information” and “things have changed.” Doing this means that we need to become comfortable with things that seem nuanced and contradictory and paradoxical. Finally, in thinking about history and human experience, it is often most useful to think in terms of good, better, and best.
Show me the Evidence
The best antidote to rumors and conspiracy theories is evidence. Rumors resist evidence by appealing instead to:
- authority or power (by quoting a long-deceased general authority figure who “said so”),
- tradition (“this is the way it’s always been done”),
- common sense (“as everybody knows”),
- nature (“that’s the way things are”), or
- fear of consequences (“if we allow this, then that will surely follow”).
All evidence is not equal. The best claims are supported by solid evidence that comes from informed (and cited) sources. Accurate information does not just appear in a single place but can be corroborated in multiple sources. You will have to identify what we know and what we don’t know as well as how we know what we know. Careful evaluation of evidence considers who is telling the story and why.
Pause, resist oversimplification, and ask to “Show me the evidence.”
You Try It
Sniff Tests
In conversations, watch out for these warning signs of poor thinking.
- “Something dark connects them!” Conspiracy thinking lazily avoids the use of evidence, telling stories that appeal instead to fear or pride.
- “True facts are dark and insidious.” If events happen only after midnight or in a darkened alley or in secret meetings of conspiratorial characters, then you need to ask for evidence.
- Only two options or sides. Beware of stories (or politicians or news channels) that force you to choose between only two options—myth or reality, fact or fiction. Such false balances make for seductive clickbait, but they distort the past and the present.
- No evidence. Evidence is required. There must be citations to reliable sources and evidence.
- A single piece of evidence. Be wary of someone who uses only a single source to the exclusion of all other available and relevant sources.
- Narrowly selected evidence. Sometimes authors distort by selecting a few facts to emphasize while ignoring and omitting others. Authors who employ this technique typically emphasize loudly that their “facts” are “correct.” For example, a friend might share quotes by Ezra Taft Benson about defending the Constitution but omit the current counsel by President Dallin H. Oaks to do so by peacefully accepting the results of elections.
- A long list of “facts.” Anomaly hunters and conspiracy theorists pile up facts in order to overwhelm, a fallacy known as proof by verbosity. If you cannot or will not respond to every item, they will declare victory.
Key Concepts
Use these good habits when speaking and listening with family and friends.
- Agree not to use oversimplifying language such as “the Right,” “the Left,” “both sides,” “the media.”
- Change “or” to “and” by looking to the middle of two extremes, accept both options, consider more than just two options, and differentiate between good, better, and best.
- Investigate your own understanding and assumptions.
- Identify what we know and what we don’t (and accept that it’s okay when we don’t know everything).
- Trace rumors and stories and quotes to sources; then evaluate the reliability of the sources.
- Look for multiple sources, perspectives, and explanations (it’s a long story).
Online Tools for Verifying Information
The First Amendment protects the freedom of the press (as well as religion) because responsible journalism is necessary to a free and functioning society (see this helpful diagram of media organizations based on both political leanings and source reliability).
Several websites monitor hoaxes, urban legends, and scams, including Snopes and Hoax Slayer.
If the information is politicized, use political fact-checking sites, such as the Associated Press’s fact-checking website, the Annenberg Public Policy Center’s FactCheck, Politifact, or the Washington Post’s Fact Checker.
Watchdog sites are generally suspicious of the thing they watch. Quack Watch debunks health-related frauds, myths, and misconduct. Source Watch tracks public-relations firms, think tanks, and industry-funded organizations that seek to influence public opinion and policy.
For more on how to structure responses to misinformation see the Debunking Handbook and the European Commission’s page on Identifying Conspiracy Theories.
